Satellite Collision Prevention with Cryptik SSA
How real-time conjunction assessment and AI-powered analytics prevented a high-risk orbital conjunction event.
The Challenge
A commercial satellite operator managing a fleet of 24 Earth observation satellites in sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) at 700 km altitude faced a critical conjunction event. The 18th Space Defense Squadron issued a Conjunction Data Message (CDM) indicating a close approach between one of their operational satellites and a fragment from the 2007 Fengyun-1C ASAT test — a 15 cm debris object with no maneuvering capability.
The CDM indicated a miss distance of 127 meters at TCA with a collision probability of 2.3 × 10⁻³ — well above the operator's threshold of 10⁻⁵. With TCA only 36 hours away, the operator needed to make a rapid, informed decision about executing an avoidance maneuver.
The Solution
The operator utilized Cryptik's collision avoidance platform to analyze the conjunction and plan a response:
Independent Orbit Determination
Cryptik's platform ingested the operator's GPS-based ephemeris for their satellite and performed independent orbit determination for the debris object using the latest tracking data. This reduced the position uncertainty from the CDM's 400m (1σ) to 85m — providing a much clearer picture of the actual risk.
Refined Collision Probability
Using the refined orbit determination and PINN-based propagation, the platform computed an updated collision probability of 8.7 × 10⁻⁴ — still above threshold, confirming the maneuver was necessary. The platform also identified that without action, the post-TCA proximity would leave the satellite in a region of elevated debris density.
Optimized Maneuver Planning
The platform generated three maneuver options optimizing for: (a) minimum delta-V (0.8 m/s), (b) maximum miss distance increase (to 4.2 km), and (c) fastest return to operational slot (18 hours post-TCA). The operator selected option (b) for maximum safety margin.
Secondary Conjunction Check
Before executing the maneuver, the platform performed a secondary conjunction screening to verify the new trajectory would not create conjunctions with other objects in the 7-day post-maneuver window. No secondary risks were identified.
The Results
The maneuver was executed successfully. Post-maneuver tracking confirmed the increased miss distance, and the satellite returned to its operational slot within 14 hours — ahead of schedule. The entire analysis and planning process, which traditionally takes hours of manual work, was completed by Cryptik's platform in under 3 minutes.
Key Takeaways
- Independent orbit determination matters: Reducing position uncertainty from 400m to 85m prevented a potential false negative that might have led to an unnecessary maneuver or, conversely, a missed real threat.
- Speed saves fuel: By providing optimized maneuver options within minutes, the platform enabled the operator to execute a smaller, more efficient maneuver further from TCA.
- Secondary screening is essential: Avoidance maneuvers can create new risks. Automated secondary screening ensures the cure isn't worse than the disease.